In this month’s special edition of Cost Per Canadian, we're tracking over $2.507M of spending by political advertisers across Canada. We get some updates on spending by the three major federal parties, take a final look (for now) at a mystery spender, and check in on Ontario as they passed $1M in spending for last month alone.

Frazer, Digital Director. Point Blank

May’s Highest Spender:

Quality Canadian Milk
$156,127

Highest Spenders

Federal Party Spend

Provincial Spend

Noted:

The Federal Conservatives completely dominated political ad spending in Canada over May, so much so that their messages may as well have been the only ones in the electorate. To put the delta between the parties in perspective, they spent more in Ontario alone than the NDP and Liberals spent combined nationally ($39,659/$26,447).

The Federal Conservative Party’s ad strategy revealed an interesting shift over the course of the month. Initially, their campaign featured a diverse range of both positive and negative messages, including promises about housing affordability and suggesting a summer tax break. Despite their professional and likely expensive production, the positive content ads were abruptly pulled after a short run. The party has now pivoted to exclusively negative ads targeting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with messages like “Fire Trudeau” and “Do you want Trudeau’s tent cities to stay?”

This strategic shift indicates a focus on acquiring cheap leads and email captures through inflammatory content, mirroring tactics seen in the U.S. Republican Party. While this approach may bring short-term gains, it risks attracting a base that thrives on negativity and is prone to rapid shifts in loyalty. The Conservative Party, not as far-right as its U.S. counterparts, could find itself outflanked by more extreme elements on the right, ultimately alienating its broader base and undermining long-term voter engagement.

Their ad targeting strategy hasn’t changed, focusing almost exclusively on geographic targeting only (rather than interests or demographics). They have, however, significantly expanded the number of unique cities and postal codes they’re reaching, with notable increases in rural Ontario and BC.

We’ve updated our interactive visualization of their spending in May and added some comparisons to show how things have changed. Click through to explore, bookmark and share with anyone in your network.

The Liberal Party launched a new ad campaign around the 17th with new and recycled content. The Liberal ads focus on housing affordability and social equity, with messages like "making the ultra-wealthy pay more so we can deliver for all Canadians." However, these messages lack compelling impact.

The Liberals' attack ads differ from those of the Conservatives by directly comparing Trudeau's and Poilievre’s policies, highlighting their differences in housing strategies. Additionally, the Liberals use interest-based targeting, focusing on categories such as social movements and first-home buyers. The approach starkly contrasts with the Conservatives' more inflammatory tactics.

In May, the New Democratic Party primarily focused their ad efforts on the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg, following the resignation of their MP Daniel Blaikie. Their campaign aimed to gather email addresses through a thank-you card initiative. Nationally, their ad presence was minimal.

The NDP did launch several ads in the last week of the month, including messages supporting public healthcare and trans rights, but most lacked actionable prompts. Their attack ad on Pierre Poilievre and the previous Manitoba premier, Heather Stefanson, also fell short by not directing viewers to take specific actions.

The NDP's targeting strategy mainly involved lookalike audiences, leveraging existing supporter lists.

The "Affordability Advocates" have been puzzling us all month due to their highly negative ad content and mysterious objectives. Their recent ad campaign, which ran from May 8th to June 1st, cost nearly $72,000 and has completely stopped. The ads painted a bleak picture of life in Canada, suggesting that people eat expired food, highlighting that over 50% of Canadians live paycheck to paycheck, and predicting that Toronto's average home price will reach $2 million in the next decade. These ads lacked any positive outlook or clear call to action.

Despite their substantial spending, the group provided no further information about themselves, no landing pages, and minimal social media engagement, leaving their true intentions unclear. One plausible theory is that they are collecting audience data for future campaigns. On platforms like Facebook, groups can run ads to gauge engagement and later retarget these engaged users from a different page. This technique allows them to build a valuable audience base covertly. However, this theory is entirely speculative and very difficult to prove without the pages themselves confirming it.

As of now, they haven't spent any more this month, but it's early, so their future actions remain to be seen. We’ll continue to monitor them and share more details if there are any to share.

Despite no scheduled provincial election for another two years, Ontario saw over $1 million in ad spending last month. The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, led by Doug Ford, contributed around $90,000 to this total. This unexpected level of spending suggests a potential early election, especially given their aggressive attack ads against the Ontario Liberal Party leader. In comparison, the Ontario Liberals spent only $5,000, and the Ontario NDP spent $13,500.

Both the Ontario NDP and Ontario Liberal Party have taken notice and have kicked off their own electioneering ads across Ontario.

The digital advertising landscape in 2024 is so precisely targeted that for many people, it’s impossible to know which ads your neighbours, friends and family are being influenced by. We track the biggest spenders and high-profile campaigns every week on Meta, keeping you in the loop with what the rest of Canada is seeing.

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